Lhivera’s Library

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Theorycrafting Discussion

Monday, June 18 2012 at 11:24pm CDT

The devs seem to be interested in seeing the theorycrafters get busy on the Mists of Pandaria numbers:

I know that's not easy to look at right now on beta, but it will get easier once A) raids are open, B) we enable mods again, C) more theorycrafters conclude that we aren't fiddling with numbers so much so that their time isn't being wasted. (We aren't fiddling with numbers nearly so much, so maybe that will encourage some theorycrafters). (source)

SimulationCraft isn't ready to go yet (the Mage module is currently entirely disabled), so we're kind of stuck in the napkin math stages, but I figured we might as well toss the old ball around and see what we can come up with. And so I'm throwing open the comments thread for discussion. I believe the TheoryCraft-o-Matic Lite is in pretty good shape as far as estimating the average damage of a spell given spell power, crit rate, mastery and haste. (Combustion is a pretty wild guess, and there may be bugs, so please feel free to point out errors if you spot them.) So I figure by working with those numbers and mathing out some potential rotations, we can come up with some preliminary numbers, at least.

First order of business: what are some reasonable level 90 stat values to work with?

Comments

Submitted by Nathyiel on

You already know that I will interested. I'm pretty sad that I can't do a think before this weekend (yes, I have a real life and work).

I will be 90 by sunday but after the stat on stuff, I guesse that we will have around 20k spell power (maybe more).

Submitted by Lhivera on

The TCoML now makes a very rough estimate of total Combustion damage based on the average tick value of a Fireball's Ignite, a Pyroblast's Ignite, and a Pyroblast's DOT given the spell power, Mastery, and Crit chance.

I've also corrected problems with Arcane Barrage not counting secondary target damage, and Arcane Missiles reporting single-tick damage.

Submitted by Areswarlord on

I would love to help with mage theorycrafting, but I have no idea how to do so really. How can I get started?

Submitted by Lhivera on

25000 Spell Power
20% Crit
8% Haste
18 Mastery

Relevant spells

Waterbolt: 2.31 sec, 24410 avg damage
Freeze: 0 sec, 1202 avg damage
Frozen Orb: 1.39 sec, 18324 avg damage
Frost Bomb: 1.39 sec, 9.26 sec cooldown, 66109 avg damage
BF-FFB: 1.39 sec, 159370 avg damage
Frostbolt: 1.85 sec, 48824 avg damage
Ice Lance: 1.39 sec, 106191 avg damage

Approximate casts per minute

Waterbolt: 60 / 2.31 ~= 26
Frozen Orb: 1 = 1.39 sec
Frost Bomb: 60 / 9.26 ~= 6.5 = 9.035 seconds
BF-FFB: 6.5 (one per bomb) = 9.035 seconds
Ice Lances (from Freeze and Frozen Orb): 4 = 5.56 seconds
Ice Lances (from BF-FFB): 6.5 * 0.12 = 0.78 ~= 1.08 seconds

(Rounding up time used so far to be a bit conservative)

Remaining time: 60 - 26 = 34 seconds

Ratio of Frostbolts to Ice Lances: 1:0.12
Average time: 1.85 + 0.12 * 1.39 = 2.0168 seconds
Cycles: 34 / 2.0168 = 16.86
Ice Lances: 16.86 * 0.12 ~= 2.02 = 2.81 seconds
Frostbolts: 16.86 = 31.19 seconds

Total is off by a few fractions of a second, but this is close enough for a rough estimate. So we have:

Waterbolts: 26 * 24410 = 634,660 damage
Freeze: 2 * 1202 = 2,404 damage
Frozen Orb: 18324 damage
Frost Bomb: 6.5 * 66,109 = 429,709 damage
BF-FFB: 6.5 * 159370 = 1,035,905 damage
Ice Lance: (4 + 0.78 + 2.02) * 106191 = 722,099 damage
Frostbolt: 16.86 * 48824 = 823,173 damage

Total damage: 3,666,274

28.25% BF-FFB
22.45% Frostbolt
19.70% Ice Lance
17.38% Pet
11.72% Frost Bomb
0.50% Frozen Orb

 

Submitted by Lhivera on

Relevant spells

Combustion: 1.39 sec, 45 sec cooldown, 84059 avg damage
Fireball: 2.08 sec, 82940 avg damage
Inferno Blast: 1.39 sec, 8 sec cooldown, 49772 avg damage
Pyroblast: 1.39 sec, 178196 avg damage
Living Bomb: 1.0 sec, 65887 avg damage

Approxmate casts per minute

Combustion: 60 / 45 ~= 1.33 ~= 1.85 sec
Living Bomb: 5 ~= 6.95 sec

Average interval between crits with a 2.08 sec Fireball is 6.93 secs. Assume we use Inferno Blast pretty much on cooldown to get a second crit, so one Inferno Blast per 8 secs, and one Pyroblast immediately following. Additionally, we can expect about 1.25 "natural" Hot Streaks happening between forced procs.

Inferno Blasts: 60 / 8 = 7.5 = 10.43 sec
Pyroblasts: 8.75 = 12.16 sec

Remaining time (rounded a bit to be conservative): 28.5 sec

Fireballs: 28.5 / 2.08 ~= 13.7

Combustion: 1.33 * 84059 = 111,798
Pyroblast: 8.75 * 178196 = 1,559,215
Inferno Blast: 7.5 * 49772 = 373,290
Living Bomb: 5 * 65887 = 329,435
Fireball: 13.7 * 82940 = 1,136,278

Total damage: 3,510,016

I suspect this estimate is a little low; once I get a mini simulator running, we'll probably find I've shorted the Pyroblasts by a fraction, and it's certainly possible I've underestimated Combustion as well — although to be fair, I didn't account for Icy Veins for Frost.

Submitted by Lhivera on

This is a deliberately bad rotation -- one I've seen many players saying is going to be very powerful. I'm really trying to show here that it isn't. Their basic idea is that they take Invocation, they stay at four Arcane Charges, and they simply Evocate as necessary.

Arcane Missiles: 30% proc -- say it's available every 3.33 casts and use when available. We'll go three casts, Missiles, four casts, Missiles, three casts, Missiles, repeat. (Not saying that's optimal, this is very rough.)

We'll assume ramp-up is complete, so we're starting at four Arcane Charges.

Once below 35% mana, we'll evocate. We're using Invocation, so regen is 0.5% per second.

Assuming zero haste for simple math.

00.0 - 01.5: NT   @ 100.0% mana: 97213 damage > 99.25% mana
01.5 - 03.5: AB 0 @ 100.0% mana: 54266 damage > 98.5% mana
03.5 - 05.5: AB 1 @ 99.5% mana: 67742 damage > 95.75% mana
05.5 - 07.5: AM 2 @ 95.75% mana: 103256 damage > 96.75% mana
07.5 - 09.5: AB 3 @ 97.75% mana: 94400 damage > 91.75% mana
09.5 - 11.5: AB 4 @ 92.75% mana: 106450 damage > 82.25% mana
11.5 - 13.5: AB 4 @ 83.25% mana: 103720 damage > 72.75% mana

13.5 - 15.0: NT   @ 72.75% mana: 90202 damage > 72.00% mana
15.0 - 17.0: AM 4 @ 72.00% mana: 128921 damage > 73.00% mana
17.0 - 19.0: AB 4 @ 74.00% mana: 101063 damage > 63.50% mana
19.0 - 21.0: AB 4 @ 65.50% mana: 98621 damage > 55.00% mana
21.0 - 23.0: AB 4 @ 57.00% mana: 96179 damage > 46.50% mana
23.0 - 25.0: AM 4 @ 46.50% mana: 119522 damage > 47.50% mana
25.0 - 27.0: AB 4 @ 48.50% mana: 93737 damage > 38.00% mana

27.0 - 28.5: NT   @ 38.00% mana: 81259 damage > 37.25% mana

28.5 - 34.5: Evocate > 100.00% mana

Second cycle

34.5 - 36.5: AB 4 @ 100.0% mana: 108533 damage > 89.50% mana
36.5 - 38.5: AB 4 @ 90.50% mana: 105803 damage > 80.00% mana
38.5 - 40.5: AM 4 @ 80.00% mana: 131869 damage > 81.00% mana
40.5 - 42.5: AB 4 @ 82.00% mana: 103361 damage > 71.50% mana
42.5 - 44.5: AB 4 @ 72.50% mana: 100632 damage > 62.00% mana
44.5 - 46.5: AB 4 @ 63.00% mana: 97902 damage > 52.50% mana

46.5 - 48.0: NT   @ 52.50% mana: 84990 damage > 53.25% mana
48.0 - 50.0: AM 4 @ 53.25% mana: 122010 damage > 54.25% mana
50.0 - 52.0: AB 4 @ 55.25% mana: 95676 damage > 44.75% mana
52.0 - 54.0: AB 4 @ 45.75% mana: 92659 damage > 35.25% mana

54.0 - 60.0: Evocate > 98.25% mana

Total damage for both cycles: 2,479,986
Total time: 60.0 seconds
Average Invocation buff uptime: 48.0 / 60.0 = 80.00%
Average Invocation multiplier: 1 + 0.8 * 0.3 = 1.24
Average DPS: 2479986 / 60.0 * 1.24 = 51,253.04

Compare this to the Frost numbers I posted yesterday:

Total damage/minute: 3,666,274
Total damage in 40 seconds: 3,666,274 / 3 * 2 = 2,444,183
Average invocation buff uptime: 40.0 / 46.0 = 86.96%
Average Invocation multiplier: 1 + 0.8696 * 0.3 = 1.26
Average DPS: 2444183 / 46.0 * 1.26 = 66,949.36 

Obviously, there's a better way to play Arcane, and once we figure it out, I'm sure the numbers will compare more favorably.

Submitted by Lhivera on
Based on tonight's build. The TCoML has been updated with the new spell data. Waterbolts: 26 * 19194 = 499,044 damage Freeze: 2 * 1064 = 2,128 damage Frozen Orb: 14,844 damage Frost Bomb: 6.5 * 53557 = 348,121 damage BF-FFB: 6.5 * 112484 = 731,146 damage Ice Lance: 6.8 * 83407 = 567,168 damage Frostbolt: 16.86 * 45448 = 766,253 damage Total damage: 2,928,704 26.16% Frostbolt 24.96% BF-FFB 19.37% Ice Lance 17.11% Pet 11.89% Frost Bomb 00.51% Frozen Orb

Submitted by Lhivera on

Something we'll need to get good simulations going is a solid set of iLevel 463 blues, gemmed/reforged/enchanted to 15% hit. I'm not going to have time to put this together in the next week, but if someone wants to give it a shot, I can get it incorporated into profiles.

Submitted by Citizenpete on

Hello Lhiv,

I followed you´re maths on us.battle.net regarding Tier 90 Talents:

Evocation's cast time at 10% haste is 5.4545 seconds. If you're using Invocation perfectly, starting the channel the moment the buff drops, you're spending 40 seconds of every 45.4545 seconds doing 125% damage and 5.4545 seconds of every 45.4545 seconds doing 0% damage.1.25 * (40 / 45.4545 ) ~= 1.10 = +10% damage

[...]

So if we compare the perfect scenarios:Invocation: +10%Rune of Power: +9.5%Incanter's Ward: +11.65%Range: 1.1165 / 1.095 = 1.96%

If we compare the imperfect scenarios:Invocation: +9.05%Rune of Power: +7.13%Incanter's Ward: +9.29%Range: 1.0929 / 1.0713 = 2.02%

I recommend you to consider the Tier 1 talent Precence of Might, because of the 1,5 minute cooldown, I´m not sure yet to use it for every 2 Invocations and deal with 7.27275s delay or just use PoM Invocation every 3 times with 2 channeld and 1 instant Invo.





Submitted by Nathyiel on

I'm still not 90 so I ask here: what are the stat rating at 90?

Submitted by Lhivera on
I'm mobile at the moment, but if you google "wow level 90 stat ratings" you should find a post with the values discovered in the spell database by the simulationcraft team. Also, I don't know if you saw this, but I posted in the official theorycrafting thread about the potential problems with multidotting and brain freeze; a future patch is going to make a change so that only the most recent bomb cast counts toward brain freeze procs.

Submitted by Nathyiel on

I've found this : http://fluiddruid.net/2012/04/mists-of-pandaria-combat-ratings-tentative...

So, we have:

  • Hit > 400
  • Haste > 500
  • Crit > 700
  • Mastery > 700
  • Crit (Int) > 2533.66

The hit cap (15%) is now 6000 hit rating.

And apart from crit by intel, all number is round.

Some other interesting datas:

  • food fest - 300 int
  • flask - 1000 int
  • profession - 320 int (x2)
  • rare gem - 160int or 80int+160crit/hast/hit/mastery
  • enchant - ~170int
  • shoulder enchant - 200int+100crit
  • legs enchant - 285int+165crit
  • chest enchant - 80 all stats
  • potion - 4000 int for 25s

I will work on gear with Hit=15% and Crit>mastery/haste. I don't think we can crit capping before Epic HM. On a first estimation, I will go for 15k intel full buff (only 6% crit).

In raid, we will have only +10% crit with molten armor and arcane intellect.

Note on Brain Freeze: yes, I have see it. I think it's the best way to handle it.

 edit>

Synapse Springs: 2940 int for 10s, 60s cooldown (16.6% uptime)

Lightweave Embrodery : 2500 int for 15s, 75s ICD (20% uptme ??)

Submitted by Lhivera on

Worth noting that they've already stated that these rating numbers will likely change; they think the drop-off from 85 to 90 is too severe.

Submitted by Nathyiel on

From Gear

  • Intel : 10652
  • Hit : 4235
  • Haste : 1574
  • Crit : 3276
  • Mastery : 2292

From Enchant

  • Profession : +640 int
  • Buff : +1940 int
  • shoulder : +200int +100crit
  • back : +180int
  • chest : +80int
  • wrist : +170int
  • hands : +170mastery
  • waist : +80int +160hit
  • legs : +285int +165crit
  • foots : +175hit
  • weapon : proc
  • off-hand : +165 int

Total

  • Intel: 14392 (+5.68% crit)
  • Hit : 4570 (11.425%)
  • Haste : 1574 (3.148%)
  • Crit : 3541 (5.058% + 5.68% = 10.765%)
  • Mastery : 2462 (3.5%)

ConclusionIf they don't change it, there will be a big problem.We can capping Hit but we will have around 3% in haste/crit/mastery. (and ~9..5% crit with intel)

There's also some work do be done on gear:

  • Trinket isn't finish
  • MH+OH is far ahead versus Staff because of the Off-Hand enchant (+165 intel). And I don't speak of the wands.
  • Some stat on stuff loook like copy/past